NASA Predicts Massive Solar Storm

NASA Predicts Massive Solar Storm

You have already heard about this at least once but were you PREPARED for it? Survivalists and preppers will be far ahead of the rest of civilization when this happens in the very near future. NASA Predicts Massive Solar Storm.

Here is a partial reprint of the NASA article:

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

“If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

NASA-flare_sxi2_med Above: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as “weak” or “mild,” but that could give the wrong impression.

“Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geom

agnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.” The 1859 storm–known as the “Carrington Event” after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare–electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society’s high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused “only” $80 to 125 billion in damage.

This is going to be a disaster to any and all communications as we know it, but there will be ways to cope. Preppers and survivalists have been getting ready for just such circumstances as these.

What Do I Need?

  • Food
  • Water
  • Barter Items
  • Communications Equipment that can be protected from the storm.
  • A network of people with like interests.

Global Warming

Global Warming

 

Global warming may have allowed AL Gore to receive a global prize for his reporting but further investigation might prove Mr. Gore errs in his research.

In an article dated September 2007 the Christian Science Monitor had this to say:

Still, over the past decade some researchers say they’ve found puzzling correlations between changes in the sun’s output and weather and climate patterns on Earth. These links appear to rise above the level of misinterpreted data or faulty equipment.

“There are some empirical bits of evidence that show interesting relationships we don’t fully understand,” says Drew Shindell, a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

For example, he cites a 2001 study in which scientists looked at cloud cover over the United States from 1900 to 1987 and found that average cloud cover increased and decreased in step with the sun’s 11-year sunspot cycle. The most plausible cause, they said: changes in the ultraviolet (UV) light the sun delivers to the stratosphere.

Clouds can cool, or clouds can heat

Others claim to have linked shifts in levels of cosmic rays reaching deep into the atmosphere to changes in average cloud cover. Depending on how thick and how high they are, clouds either cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space or act as a blanket and trap heat. The valve controlling the flow of cosmic rays from deep space is the sun’s magnetic field – which shifts with sunspot activity.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0927/p13s03-sten.html 

Admittedly there will be strong arguments against the sun’s effect’s in the global warming issue mostly from those who are receiving various awards and/or are writing books supporting their stand. But one last comment should at least cause one to further investigate the matter of sunspots and global warming:

Phil Chapman, geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in San Francisco, writes in The Australian about the frightening prospect that this year’s ferocious winter and decline in average temperature is the herald of serious cooling:

The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.

It didn’t happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.

That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern.

It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.

There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.





sun spots

Software

Software



 



Radio propagation software is a a great addition to amateur radio operators, shortwave listeners, and those interested in learning more about radio communications.

Here is an unordered list with descriptions and some screenshots, to visit the web sites just click the title:

Radio Propagation & Diffraction Calculator v1.03 – This is a radio frequency propagation calculator for the transmission path between an RF transmitter and a receiver. It is aimed mainly at short range radio applications, such as in-building LAN and point-to- point links up to a few km where there is a direct line-of-sight or a simple diffraction profile, or a modified range law model, but it can also support calculations for satellite, aeronautical and space communications where the line-of-sight model can be applied. It is useful to both ham operators and radio professionals.

W6ELPropTM Version 2.70 – W6ELProp predicts ionospheric (sky-wave) propagation between any two locations on the earth on frequencies between 3 and 30 MHz. There is no charge for W6ELProp when used for non-commercial purposes.

Ham CAP 1.0 – HF propagation prediction tool for Amateur Radio. To give you an example of what these propagation programs look like we have included a couple of screenshots from Ham CAP 1.0 below.

HF propagation prediction tool for Amateur Radio Area coverage mapArea coverage map in pseudo-colorsSignal-to-Noise Ratio vs. time and frequency  
 

DXPROP – A freeware high frequency tool in both French and English. Here are some screenshots:

prop graph 1 prop chart 1

Web Links

Web Links For Sun Spots & Solar Cycles

 



Web links are always a great help when you are doing research on the web. We’ve assembled some of the best of the best of web sites that focus on sun spots, radio propagation, and even software that you can use in your research or daily use.





sun spots

Radio Propagation

Radio Propagation

 

Radio propagation is simply the sending of radio signals out into the world in the hope that a receiver elsewhere will receive this signal. In other words, propagation is more than just signals bouncing helter skelter around the globe in the hopes that someone might pick up your signal. While it is a simplistic explanation the statement above doesn’t tell you how radio propagation takes place. Or what affects it. Getting educated about solar cycles and the way they affect radio propagation will a great benefit to either a survivalist or prepper. Shortwave listeners should also study sun spots as the solar cycle also affects the signals which shortwave receivers are capable of being picked up. Just because a radio does not have a transmitter does not mean the sun spots won-t affect it.

Of the many things that affect radio propagation the most significant ones are:

One very good resource for those desiring to learn more about radio propagation is that of a Flash® presentation created by Geoffrey Noles who holds the callsign of AE4RV. This presentation is great to learn the basics of radio propagation and most folks learn better when taught visually. You can view this great propagation presentation on his web site or by downloading it. Use one or both of these links:

Web site propagation presentation.

Download propagation presentation.

One last resource for this page is the work of an amateur radio operator from the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Tennessee. The article is named The Basics of Radio Wave Propagation and presented by Edwin C. Jones, MD, PhD who holds the callsign of AE4TM. This resource is quite extensive and informational so it is suggested that those interested in his work visit his page and read it in its entirety The link is: The Basics of Radio Wave Propagation



sun spots

Sunspots

Sunspots

 

Sun spots can be described as a prime motivator of radio communications. Every 11 years there is a change between cycles, we are currently beginning sunspot cycle 24 meaning that sunspots are beginning to appear on Old SOl. These sunspots make the high frequency bands particularly useful in that one is able to communicate farther. These same bands were almost useless as cycle 23 ended and cycle 24 began. The upper amateur radio bands 10 meters, 12 meters, 15 meters, and 17 meters were negatively affected by the lack of sunspots. As a side note you could also include the CB band of 11 meters as also being negatively affected by the low sunspot activity. The sunspots have a direct bearing on radio wave propagation (and the climate!1) and will be explained further in the section named Radio Propagation.

As mentioned before, the current sunspot cycle 24 is in the beginning stages. There are some excellent sites on the web dealing with sunspot activity. One very popular one is aptly named solarcycle24.com and has a huge amount of information on it concerning radio propagation and general and a great source for information on cycle 24. The link is to the web site is an easy to remember one: http://www.solarcycle24.com. This site is owned and operated by Kevin, VE3EN which is a Canadian amateur radio station.

Another great web site for sun spots as they apply to radio communications is that of N0NBH’s web site located at HAM QSL. His site is a major contributor to the radio community by providing the tools such as seen on the main page of this section. He also has an excellent explanation of the various conditions caused by sun spots. This very informative page is located at http://www.hamqsl.com/shortcut.html.

End notes: 1 Sunspots and the climate changes have been tie together in that the weather changes pretty much follow the sunspots cycles. While Al Gore and the global warming theorists claim we are in meltdown stage it is scientifically proven that the weather too is cyclic.



sun spots

What’s A Sunspot?

What’s A Sunspot?

Sun spots? What in the world does the spots on the Sun have to do with radios that are used by preppers and survivalists. Everything! The spots on the Sun affect all communications modes, not just ham radio. It is true that not all communications is affected in the same manner but the Sun is a major contributor to communications.

How does the Sun affect communications?

It has to do with propagation, one definition of propagate – travel through the air; “sound and light propagate in this medium”. To simplify it, propagation in regards to radio communications behavior after they are transmitted (and also how they act on reception).

In regards to radio communications ( it will be good for survivalists and preppers alike to learn this ) the sun goes through its 11 year cycle the radio waves are affected by solar radiation which is emitted by the sun. When the solar cycle is at its peak radio propagation is good, signals travel farther with less power output. When the solar cycle is at its minimum the propagation if poor, in fact some bands such as 10 meters are almost worthless during this period.

What this means is that survivalists and preppers need to educate themselves about the sun spots and the daily counts. Then you will know what bands will and will not work so it would behoove you to not center you emergency comm plans around just one or two bands. Should the SHTF during a solar max you’ll have little to no problems with propagation. If the SHTF during a solar minimum then you will find most of the upper bands, 12 through 10 meters, of little use. 20 meters will be usable but not to the degree that it was in previous years. One thing that will annoy the liberals, Al Gore, and other climate change fanatics is that the solar cycle also has a big effect on global cooling as well.

Here are some more in-depth articles on sunspots and radio propagation.

 



  sun spots